The current lead of the Conservatives in opinion polls promises Theresa May a bigger landslide victory than Margaret Thatcher achieved in 1983, states Professor Richard Rose and Dr. Savvas Savouri in a co-authored report released today by Toscafund Asset Management LLP. In 1983 Thatcher won 43.9 percent of the British vote; during this campaign the Conservatives have averaged 46.5 percent and since the local elections 48 percent. A third of a century ago the Conservatives won 397 seats; and the report argues that the Conservatives should win the same amount at the 8th June general election.
Theresa May’s strategy of moving closer to the United Kingdom Independence Party’s policies on the EU and immigration has enabled her to cannibalise their support. Most of the vote UKIP took from the Tories when David Cameron was ambivalent about EU membership has returned to a Conservative government firmly anchored to Brexit. This is helping it to oust Labour in dozens of seats. In the next Parliament, Conservative MPs will outnumber Labour members by a margin of well over 200.
The Labour Party is heading for its biggest parliamentary defeat since 1935, even though current polls show that at 30 percent its support is higher than Michael Foot achieved in the party’s 1983 debacle. Â The report predicts that Labour will win only 169 seats. This is due to Jeremy Corbyn’s hard left views, which will deter Liberal Democratic and middle of the road voters whose support is needed by Labour MPs defending marginal seats from the surge in Conservative support.
By winning a substantial majority on her own terms, Theresa May can be confident of parliamentary backing for her Brexit plan. On the basis of Professor Rose’s forecasts, Savvas Savouri states that the greater the popular mandate the prime minister gets the more markets will credit her with having a strong negotiating hand with the EU. This should help reassure those concerned that the hard rhetoric they have been hearing will translate into a hard Brexit.
You can read the full paper by clicking here.