Europe: How Markets View Integration Versus Disintegration

Opposing forces championing integration versus disintegration are assailing Europe. In the past two years both sides have scored important victories. Britain’s Brexit, Spain’s Catalonian independence referendum and the entry of the nationalist Alternative fur Deutschland (‘AfD’) party to the German parliament, or Bundestag, were victories for proponents of lesser European unity. The electoral defeat of far-right forces in the Netherlands and the victory of Emmanuel Macron in France were celebrated by those favoring the guiding principle of an ‘ever closer union’.

Whatever one thinks of Brexit, the prospects for deeper European integration and the legitimacy of the various national independence movements, the currency markets’ view is unambiguous: they strongly favor deeper political integration: